SirRealist,
Thanks for your reply. Your handle sounds like a TC2K Knight of the Roundtable. Do you think for yourself? Thanks for sharing your thoughts with me.
<< NASDy clearly has a support point at 1201 >>
Yes, I see support at 1200 from 4/97 and 10/96, and it was resistance in 5/96 and 7/96. Thus I expect 1200 to hold.
<< typically each fall to test an old support point remains shy of that by 25 points or more >>
So true! Just because 1200 should hold doesn't mean that the Naz will necessarily touch it.
<< 1250ish oughta be it >>
1250 looks like a good target. Roughly 75 points below Zeev's minimum drop ... and you know how optimistic those turnips can be !!! <GGG>
<< barring some calamity (BSC) >>
Never saw BSC before, but I like it! Thanks!
<< My charts suggest 7/3-7/8 will be the bottom >>
I would be interested if you care to elaborate.
My thoughts:
Naz dropped roughly 300 pts in 3 weeks (Apr/May) and then roughly 300 pts in 4 weeks (May/June). After peaking at 1568 on Tuesday, a 300 pt drop would bring us to 1268, or roughly the 1250 target that we are contemplating. Might this happen in less than 2 weeks? Zeev says that the last leg down is often the sharpest, so maybe, but 2 weeks sounds like a good minimum for the target timeframe, which would give us 7/2 as the "earliest" date for a bottom.
On a "fundamental" perspective, it is hard to imagine the market rallying hard BEFORE 7/4 with all of the possible 9/11ish threats we hear. I expect (and hope and pray) that the long weekend is totally uneventful (like Y2K), so I think that the rally may start with a large "I survived the Fourth of July" gap up on 7/5, making 7/3 the low. Some brave (foolhardy?) traders will go full long on 7/3 in anticipation of the gap up on 7/5 and should be handsomely rewarded for taking that risk, but I plan to wait until 7/5 (or maybe even 7/8) to make sure the terrorist threats are (at least temporarily) behind us. If there are no incidents, then it will cost me some potential profits, but if there are events, I would only want to be long gold and defense.
(LMT looks great, but hardly offers a reasonable entry point. Maybe just jump in at market with a very tight stop??? I have been watching it for a few days and don't want to chase it, but the upmove seems relentless ... much like the downmove in the Naz. I don't know if it will turn down when the Naz turns up or if it will keep on running. Will probably just learn from the sidelines.)
These are my current thoughts, but I will of course keep my eyes on Zeev's blessed turnips and may go long sooner.
It should be an exciting couple weeks.
Take care and thanks again!
Grace and Peace - Ken |
