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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.32

-5.6%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (64517)	6/22/2002 7:05:06 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 70976

This is a congressional contest, I don't think international politics will be important, except as it affect the mood of the electorate, thus my target invasion period as suggested late last year: The War on Terror, will, however, continue, and eventually ends up with an actual conflagration on Iraq's soil later this year (Iraq may be tempted to "arise" the Islamic world to its defense by a preemptive move against Israel). Actual "hostilities" will not start before next September at the earliest, possibly later (it is a "bitch" to conduct desert warfare in the summer, and even a military buildup will have to wait well after July/August). For political reasons (elections) the actual military activities will probably start in October. These events, strangely enough, could precipitate a year end powerful rally in the markets. (see #reply-16842549). An autumn bottom should coincide with actual hostilities starting...as radical as that sounds. Zeev

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