In 1974, there was no real capitulation. In the
mid 80's there was.
70's was a period of time when people I knew
got out of the market, (some with substantial
losses)... This was before tech. (outside of
IBM/TXN/DEC (bought out for some time now))
and the INET were really in place. Even these
companies were suffering.
In the early 80's, there was a definite exit!
The early 80's suffered the same effect. Capitulation
means "Honey, we have a loss of $15,000 and we are
going to exit". Interest rates were very high then...
(I'm glad that I bought a bunch of TIGR's and CAT's
@ this time - all paying between 11 and 13.5%).
Some interesting points (at least I think so 8-) ).
Interest rates are now very LOW (compared to the early
80's). In the early 70's you could get a 30 year loan
around 6.5%. SIMILAR TO TODAY! I DON'T see capitulation
happening now. Perhaps people have learned to wait it
out (or they decided to exit early on).
IMHO, The main hassles hampering the market today are:
1: Folks don't believe big business - (so go with the
Russell 2000).
2: Stick with real estate - some analysts were stating
that the real estate market was going to fold, guess
what, it hasn't. (DONT LISTEN TO THE GOOD FOR
NOTHINGS!). BTW, some have been stating this for over
a year! How they can be so blind re: cause and effect,
interest rates and housing is beyond me!
3: The conflict in the middle east... So far as I am
concerned, this should NOT have any effect on the
U.S. market, as a matter of fact, it should help!
4: Terrorist attacks... This is a shameful thing and
needs to be stopped asap. IMHO, the U.S. should have
bombed IRAQ back into the stone age 12 years ago.
It sure would have helped eliminate a bunch of the
problems that we have now.
I am sorry for giving instructions as how to build a
watch, when all you asked for was the time.
Take Care! |
