today's commentary, mp3 download
chartwerx.com
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intraday charts featured, 1 thru 5, btk, indu, rut, spx, compq
update for 6-23-02
the bank index has retreated to our next target of 830 as mentioned in the last commentary. this coincides with the low end channel and fibonacci level as illustrated on the chart. the bank index has now established a lower high. additionally negative here is the inability to maintain the longer term thick blue line as the uptrend. now the 846-850 area acts as resistance as well as our previous target area on the bounce in the mid 860s. we mentioned in previous commentaries since april the bearish threshold being in place on rsi.this is the first time its failed at the midpoint prior to the threshold as price has dragged it down. 801-805 look like a horizontal zone. 790 perhaps from an old line which seemed to coincide with the last low as support at that time, now slightly lower.
the biotech weekly still looks like an abc to me with b to c showing 5 impulses, which are marked on the daily. i'm not an expert with elliot, but thats how it looks to me. however, this week's highs appear to be a failure of the .62 fibonacci level on the weekly measuring 1998-2000, coinciding with a horizontal on price in the 380's that was broken and is now trying to act as resistance with a weekly close remaining below it. on the 60 the last two days have shown the index tracking one of our downtrend acceleration lines. 327 is the last support. the purple target line its found support off a couple times in the past moves to about 300 by 6-25. the next daily fib level may be around 281. topside resistances are 380 and 400.
for the dj65,in the last commentary we applied a fibonacci set to the 60min to find additional supports and the index plowed right to our lowest one we had pegged for 230pm but got there and hour early. it then used the same accelerated trendline as support again in the final half hour at the day's low. so that broken downtrend line is acting as initial support followed by the low set at 2721. further below on the daily the next level would be around 2691, then possibly 2637 before hitting the next fibonnaci level below indicated on the daily. to the topside 2770 is a multiple fib level now. 2793-2809 has various forms of resistance as well from the sixty minute. 2832 next, 2862 again.
the compq failed to hold the 405 daily box and proceeded again straight for the 450 box horizontal where it closed at 1440. this is probably close enough to be considered a 2b test. from our may 8 commentary, outside of sept 11, this index has traded down a max of 3 days in each previous instance below 30. 22.71 and 24.50 were achieved on those downdrafts. sept 11 registered 15.44. current readings are 31.40. likely any further downside takes the index under the 30 mark and to a test of the september lows in price at 1388, below that the next box is in place in the low 1320s. on the 60min there is the coinciding fibonacci cluster area with the daily box level. additional fib levels intraday appear to be 1412 and 1370. technical conditions mentioned in the last commentary have not changed much, rollovers from a couple of days ago on the daily continue their trek down as the 60min while oversold 2 days ago remains in the same condition. 1445 as a retest of the lost low could be the first hurdle back up. also 1456. at 230pm on 6-24 the accelerated downtrendline carries a value of 1471. followed by 1480-86. this area was the best potential area for a bounce over the past two day's as intraday adx levels peaked, yet there was no coinciding bounce. quite surprising activity that it didn't. it based to work them off and proceeded on its way lower. in a sense, when a potential buy signal fails, its a good sell signal. it will take a move above this level up to about 1508 before anything positive can be considered.
from the last commentary we had a low end channel in the 9350s for early morning friday. the first hour tested that line as support but by 1130 we had lost it and proceeded to test the previous low which we closed in the vicinity of setting up a 2b type test on this index as well. that low end channel will be about 9340 midday monday. here again high adx signals intraday failed to produce a bounce around the 9300 level. this is such a straight shot down, it appears the next resistance level may be as high as 9430, followed by 9470 to 9542 channel. this area coincides with the acceleration line down late monday into early tuesday trading. next downside fibonacci level on the daily is in the 9055 area. then possibly the low 9000s. below 9000 the next daily fib level is in the 8600s. measuring some moves on the 60min friday's close is the equivalent of a 1.27 level from 9350-9750 bounce. the 1.62 is 9100 and there is an additional fib set that will carry a value of 9067. the next level on this particular set comes in at 8720. in late april 32 on the rsi resulted in a bounce, you have to go back to sept to find a lower value.
again from one of the may commentaries we mentioned the threshold on the daily ndx to be about 27, tonight's reading is right around 30.two down days was enough to break the uptrend/divergence the rsi had established. the sixty minute has been in the vicinity of its threshold levels as well. we're now trading below the sept lows. potential intraday supports at 1013 and 979. on the daily a 1.27 fib level of 913 as well as a weekly trendline support in the same vicinity roughly 900. 1055 the first topside. then about 1070 and 1085. here again failed high adx readings in the 1070s occurred intraday with no resulting bounce.
the russell 2000 took less of a hit it seems than other indexes and as a result the technical profile has seen less damage. we were looking for a break of 456 to cause further damage but it has stopped shy of that point as of now, but remains an important area. the expectation would have been for this index to get slaughtered in correlation with the dollar movement of the past couple days, so its a bit surprising although just 2 days of activity. below 456 we'll stick with 446, 438 and 415 off the daily. while the topside stays at 475 roughly and then about 484. intraday this index has remained on the topside of its downtrend acceleration line and has used it as support both days since the last commentary mentioned its retest. it also will correspond with 456 during monday morning trade.
the sox failed to hold the 400ish support on our daily represented by the green line. we had 388 as weekly support and its managed a close below that as well. on a 20box p and f 360 looks like the 2b. tho we still show low 340s as the actual test in candle form. the weekly rsi is reading about 34 with recent bounces coming in the 32 area in the past. on the daily we've mentioned the area of 25. from our may commentaries, in oct 2000 this index broke 30 on the rsi and traded down for 3 days, only other time its happened in the last two years was sept 11. the sixty min is also in the vicinity of one of two threshold areas. 388 thus is a topside resistance now. then 398-403, 415 in movavg form on the sixty minute, 425-430.
the spx is once again below the .23 daily fib level and back below the mid line of the fork. friday's low was met by a near intraday apex of lines, one of which was mentioned in the last commentary at 994. some intraday basing may set that up now as the first resistance followed by 1002 and 1012-16 then 1028. an acceleration moves into 1018 by 4pm on 6-25. to the downside 980, 965 and then the sept low at 944.
not much change to the tranports. 2800 confirmation to break the negative pattern. 2700 first negative, 2630 2nd negative. overbought oscillators and short rsi.
xbd is near a retest of the 408 fib level, below that the recent low at 400. our target line if it is going to be tested has moved to about 380 and the next fib level is 368 all off the daily. intraday this index also has been tracking the acceleration line down as a support similar to what the russell 2000 has been doing, topsides start around 420-25 followed by about 441.
milesov |
