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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Dan P who wrote (670)6/23/2002 11:46:29 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan,

This was the week for Barron's mid-year round table. Farber, Zulauf and Biggs are all bullish on gold and bearish on the dollar; though I think a fair summary their views is that the price may move sideways for a few months. I think it is also fair to say that a the majority of the eight panelists believe the stock markets are at or close to an intermediate bottom but the best that can be expected over the next year is a flat market.

Epstein acknowledged in this week's column that he does not necessarily share the view (quoted in last week's column) of Carl Weinberg, chief economist at the Valhalla, NY-based High Frequency Economics on the dollar. He leans towards a weak dollar. He still argues that we will not have a double dip but he isn't looking for more than a flat market.

I should also note that lease rates have fallen further. The one-year rate is now essentially 0.76%. As I have said many times before, it seems clear to me that continued low rate suggests a surplus of gold to lease and few takers. This is positive for gold. FWIW, the one-year rate for silver is almost down to 1 %.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 06/20, the Barron's GMI was 487.41 up from the previous week's 452.05. With the POG essentially the same at 322.70(06/21), the ratio was up significantly at 1.51.

A year ago the ratio was 1.14.

Cheers,
Larry
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