Dale, I see your point, but I'm not sure that you understood Cashin's point. (I saw the same piece with him as you did, I think, but I came away with a very different take on it.) On the other hand, maybe you understood him and I did not. So, let me tell you how I saw it, and tell me what you think.
It seemed to me he was saying that IF the Nas retests the Sept intra-day low, AND the DOW and S&P go along, we COULD get a capitulation-type event today, which would allow us to put in a bottom for at least the summer.
But, I don't think he meant that if we come close to the Sept intraday low, then we'll just hit that low a day or two later, hence the bottom is, for all intents and purpose, "IN."
He seemed (to me) to be saying that if we DON'T get to such a capitulative event, this slow grinding will simply continue. The implication I took away from what he said is that if we don't get a capitulative event soon, the ultimate "bottom" may be quite a bit lower, and quite a bit later. |
