Jeff, I'm of the opinion that the high and low today will serve as anchors for a large flag to be formed during the Fed meeting. We usually get flags and little volatility during the meetings. The price action should not go below today's low or above today's high during the next day and a half, IMO.
When the meeting breaks Wednesday, I think the bear flag will break to the norm (down). We'll see. I think the end of month window dressing is pretty futile right now, especially if we sell off deeply on Wednesday and breach today's lows (which I expect).
As for when the bottom will be, I'm just watching to see what transpires the end of the week and next Monday. If we drop to 1325 or so by next Monday and have strong sentiments at that level, I'll possibly sell my puts, as that is close to my target and satisfies other targets for an interim low.
The Dow is going to be important in finding our bottom. I believe there is a window for a low on the SPX until the end of July using a 26-week cycle, so we could get a low anytime between the end of June and the end of July if that is the case.
The end of June / early July works better for a low because of the convergence of cycles (Fed meeting, lunar, Fibonacci, 9-month cycle, indicators, etc).
We'll see. Play the trend, and make money in the end <G>.
Sometimes it's hard to know what the trend is when we whipsaw <G> |
