DJ,
I've read and re-read Mike's post several times now. While I agree with the sentiment and tone of what he's saying, I'm not so sure about the timing. Barring any unforeseen catastrophes (terrorist attacks, nuclear war between India and Pakistan, stuff like that) in the next few weeks, I think the market stays up (or sideways) until the September or October time frame before going down the tubes.
Why? September/October is a traditional bad two month time frame. History is on my side.
More importantly, that's when the mutual funds, pension funds, etc. will begin to assess their results for year end reporting, and undoubtedly they'll be dumping losers to make themselves look better than their peers. (Just my opinion, though...)
Also, by that time, the markets should have seen a substantial flight of foreign capital, sufficient to the point where it can no longer be masked by other numbers or other financial data. The governments of the world, the Central Banks, the politicians, the corporations and the market insiders have done a wonderful job (so far) of obfuscating the real economic problems, and the real "numbers". But ultimately, the business cycle will win out, and the real problems will become known. Of course, global employment may be down to record low numbers, but that's what it might take for everyone to 'fess up to their share of the problems. But, that's just the way I see it. Someone smarter than me might see things differently...
KJC |
