T2:
I am a tech freak and probably the easiest "mark" on the planet for any new tech gizmo salesman. But that is not necessarily the case for most folk, so one has to get out to the stores and monitor the evolving buying patterns with respect to particular tech items before one invests.
Usually, when something new and exciting comes along, there is a fairly lengthy period during which sales are tepid and acceptance is agonizingly slow. Then, if the public comes to recognize it as both useful AND appropriately priced, sales will take off. Over the years, I have learned to be patient and wait for that broad-based public acceptance to kick in before making the big bets. Frequently, the promising early leaders in an evolving tech sector flop. Sometimes, they simply can't raise the required dough, other times, their technology is usurped by larger players, and all too often, their technology is simply left in the dirt when a slightly better (and sometimes worse) competing technology grabs sufficient market share to gain critical mass. At other times, one finds that there simply are not enough interested buyers out there to allow the new tech company to pay their ongoing operating costs, never mind recoup the original investments or (heaven forbid) make actual profits. A good example of this was Iridium.... fabulous technology, but very few interested prospective customers.
With respect to advanced wireless systems, so far, I have not seen sufficient real interest out there to suggest that it is going to be a great, near term investment area. Haven't started shorting any of them yet, but given the precarious state of the balance sheets of some of the more prevalent players, I likely will soon. Without near term exploding growth, the debt is simply going to overwhelm some of them.
Best, Earlie |
