BTW- (This will warm to cackles of your bear heart)...
Can't begin to tell you how many articles I've read/people I've spoken to...who believe that there is no way house prices are going down anytime soon. A few will allow for flat prices for a year or two, but majority see housing market as totally different from stock market, with little no correlation. The problems affecting the $1 million dollar plus homes...well, that is a "separate issue" for many, and does not effect sub $1 million homes.
Even articles that allow we are in a mini-housing bubble...they all end "but housing market is different, blah, blah...." and wimp out in final conclusion.
I don't predict Nasdaq-type collapse, but almost everyone I know is fully unprepared for THEIR house to go down 20-30% in value..
Among this group, no one can explain to me (wants to explain)....how incomes can go up 3-5% (on average, p.a.) and, yet, housing prices can grow twice that or more (% basis, p.a) for two or three decades without an overvalued housing market taking place.
I thought for a while, housing might take a moderate hit..but I am starting to think it will get much worse. The "permanent bull market" thinking for housing reminds me of late 90s stock market thought. |
