Limtex, I think you are misunderstanding the context in which people on the thread use the word fear. Sure, on its surface, it may seem that people around here are rooting for other folks to become fearful, and in a sense that is true, but not it's not some ghoulish desire to see others in pain.
My understanding, and I believe that of most folks on the thread, and as far as I can tell, most folks with a lot of experience in the markets, is that this horrible grinding downward will not end until there is "capitulation," which means that people in general become so full of fear of the market that they throw in the towel and run away from it.
Do I, (or anybody I can think of on the thread), wish this upon others? NO.
But, market history tells us it's coming, regardless of what we do or think. Market history also tells us that the longer it is held off -- by the PPT, mini-bear rallies, etc. -- the worse it will ultimately be.
This is why Zeev is looking for his 5 out of 6 days of -1000 ticks, BECAUSE THAT WILL SIGNAL AN END TO THIS TORTURE! That is why I personally hope for a very fast drop to the 1325-1350 level on the Nasdaq -- I think that if we get that, we can at least have a decent summer of going up a bit.
On the other hand, if we don't get this flushing, this "capitulation," this "FEAR," you know what I believe will happen? We will simply continue to grind slowly downward, on and on and on, 15-50 points per week. Pretty soon, we'll find ourselves at that 1325-1350 level, but we'll still have no bottom in sight, so then we'll need ANOTHER 100+ points of flushing, (capitulation, FEAR), before we can put in a bottom.
To analogize, the market is like a patient with an infected toe. Gangrene has set in, and it's spreading, and spreading, and spreading. At this point, the only thing that can be done to treat it is to chop off half his foot. Is this a good thing? In an absolute sense, certainly not, yet I hope that he gets half his foot chopped off ASAP, because if he doesn't, he's going to lose his entire foot, then his lower leg, etc.
So, yes, many of us root wildly for fear to strike the market in a huge way. But we're not a bunch of ghouls who wish misery on our fellow man. Far from it. We know that fear is coming, (if we are ever to get out of this slow torture), and we want it to be OVER WITH ASAP.
You may have very different views about how the markets work, and that is your right. Most folks around here, however, honestly believe that the only way to get this behind us is to get to the point of FEAR as soon as possible. The quicker the fear comes, the sooner the misery will end.
That is why I get so ticked off when you compare people to Bin Satan. He would like our misery to go on forever. We just want it over with. Fear, unfortunately, is a necessary component of the cure.
augie |
