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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: Mannie who wrote (698)6/25/2002 2:49:13 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 89467
 
energy sector is perking up a bit
I dont have much detail though, noticed crude over $26
blamed it on Palestine violence, Bush ultimatim

I believe the crude oil correction since May is done
I believe the crude oil rally will now resume upward
summer driving season, pressure in MidEast
as well as total roadblock by ineffectual Congress on domestic production, exploration, and compromise with envmtal concerns

maybe eventually talk of autumn apple picking festivals and smashed pumpkins in Baghdad
let's not forget terrorism hits in USA
that would have massive effect on crude oil prices

the downside for energy stocks is world economy slide
I think we have 2:1 odds in favor of world recession next year
those odds could easily rise
I dont deal in bullshit politicospeak mindcontrol games
I dont take govt data on face value, must filter it
I see a DoubleDip recession likelihood rising each month

the most compelling piece of data I see is the recent rise resumption in First Time Claims for Unemployment
in every recession since 1970, FTC rise steadily, then fall completely back to low levels
this recession is different
FTC dipped down in last half of last year
and now FTC is higher than its previous peak last year
THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN 30 YEARS

tells me that DoubleDip recession is about to unfold
your energy stocks will have a constant strong push & pull
the economy will pull prices down
the MidEast and Islamic tension will push prices up
gonna be wild to watch
/ jim
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