Oh, I think we need to go below that. Not necessarily the Dow. The Dow was severely lagging in growth throughout the bubble. That is a strange fact that many people overlook.
The Dow is aversely effected by the NAZ blowoff, however, so I think it could decline to 8500.
As for the size of the Naz bubble, I was reviewing it and it really wasn't as bad as previous bubbles. Nor was the collapse.
1929 was far worse on a percentage basis, over a shorter period (close to 90% lost). The Dow has been pretty flat the last 4 years (+/- 40%), and is larger in cap terms.
When we dip below the 9/11 level, then there will be a nasty few days, a leveling off period, and we'll be looking forward to better times.
The economy is so much stronger than people think/thought that it's surprising more people aren't paying attention. Hell, that "recession" is about the closest thing to a soft landing that anyone could ever look back at...I'm surprised AG hasn't gotten the credit he deserves. He remains vilified in many circles for bursting the bubble, and as everyone knows...that's his job!!
Sad but true.
By the way, does anyone on this thread know anything about Stirling engines? I've been studying them (hobby) recently, and I'm fascinated with Dean Kamen's work. I have a feeling Dean is about to break something big that is going to provide massive growth in the economy.
Anyone care to share? |
