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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: augieboo who wrote (84985)6/25/2002 4:26:16 PM
From: opalapril  Read Replies (3) of 99280
 
Augiepoo - Can you articulate a fundamental economic explanation, instead of a medical analogy, for the oft-repeated but never explained chestnut that a capitulation driven by fear is "needed"? As for "'cause that's what history says,"I'm not so sure -- (1) the '30s and the '70s saw many claims made that a "capitulation" event had just ocurred, and still the market went down; and (2) doesn't the comparatively much larger market equity ownership of institutions, funds, and hedge funds make historical analogies more problematic? If the "capitulation" theory is always intinsically true, there has to be a reasoned basis for it, even if it's only voodoo, like "the market is driven by self-fulfilling prophecies when enough people invest a belief in them."
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