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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (43265)	6/26/2002 11:50:34 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 209892

We are years away from fear. People have forgotten what fear smells like in this market. From an Elliot perspective, the fact that everyone is trying to catch the bottom says we are still in the denial or early recognition phase. In the true recognition phase, everyone will have stepped away from the market, and those who play it will play the short side. When true capitulation comes, everyone will be bearish, will have been bearish for years, and there will be no talk of looking for capitulation. Stocks will be forgotten. Take 1995-2000 and invert everything. Then you've got what the bottom will look like. Keep in mind that everyone invests by proxy these days. We haven't even seen any real mutual fund redemptions yet. They will come, and they will last for many months. Only after that can capitulation occur. BC

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