Sure, their technology is great and perhaps their business plan, too. But we're in a 27 mo (so far) mkt corrective period that hasn't ended yet. In that environment, there are almost no safe longs because history indicates corrections like these hafta overcorrect first. We dunno what that new PE level will be, as yet, so there's no certain benchmark to be relative to.
After we go through a period of layoffs, the deflation of bubbles in real estate and autos caused by Fed cuts, a period of consumer nonconfidence that makes Christmas and winter quarter yucky, the restoration of sufficient consumer confidence to sustain longterm investments can be more easily assessed.
But at the moment, mid-July to mid-Sept and mid Oct to Dec 1st are the only two likely periods where I can see any potential for decent bearmkt rallies. (Or, alternately, mid-July through Nov 1st).
In the meantime, the better plays are likely to remain in newly emerging small & midcaps in this period. The concept of killer app can't overcome the smell of beargrease till the real hibernation season comes, which I hope will begin by next summer. |
