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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (43461)	6/26/2002 8:25:18 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (2) of 209892

July begins the worst 4 months of the year for the Nasdaq since 1971. Omitting Presidential election years... it's July, Aug., Sept then October...in that order. August, September and October each post successively worse negative returns. And while the SnP has managed to post exactly middle of the road performance for July since 1950 ...August and September are the WORST performing months, (realizing the only negative returns) for that index on a monthly basis. "Traders Almanac" pps. 136-137 Odds certainly are in favor of some sort of light rally situation in the month of July, vs a big production rally into Aug./Sept. Seasonality would still favor the Q4 scenario for any appreciable secular bear market, cyclical bull, rally.

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