Zeev, after looking at some charts tonight, I've come to the conclusion that I missed a very obvious indicator that always is a sign to cover shorts and go long - the daily pierced the lower BB and closed above it.
That is a signal that Al (Steve's program) trades successfully (I'm surprised Al didn't get a buy today).
That either signals a flag going out to the middle BB or 13-day or 20-day EMA, or a rise up to the middle BB at a minimum.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
The ADX + did not reach the level of the May low, so we may not have the run we had at that time. I would tend to agree with the target of 1526-1555, as that meshes well with the middle BB, MA's, and normal expected bounce off a low like this.
If this is a low that will be tested (and it should be) we'll have ample opportunity to go long and / or cover shorts at that time and re-load in the direction of the trend.
You may have seen the BB thing at the end of the session when many of us were looking at other stuff. Sometimes it's the most obvious things that we miss.
Here's a chart for JNPR from mid to end January illustrating what I'm talking about. Notice the low at 12.78, the re-test 2-days later, and the run to the 13-day EMA, followed by a drop. The action after the close above the lower BB is what we need to watch.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20020118,20020326][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
Again, good call on holding the traders overnite. I believe you've got a very prudent game plan based upon what I've been seeing. My plan is to exit puts on the re-test (I re-loaded near the middle of the Dow gap fill) and get some calls for Max Pain in July. I did make better than a 2-bagger on the puts I closed this AM (purchased about 2-weeks ago), so I'm still doing OK. |
