Tom and all,
Initially I was just answering a Q. by the founder of this thread which wasn't meant to be answered.
Indeed once I made such a declaration I'm obliged to explain (Please have hard copies of a five years and a twenty five years graph of the Dow or either S&P, and sharpen your pencil)
1. Background- Three years bull, or fifteen years bull?
Where do we put our finger to say "Here begins the rise" ?
We can easily enough locate the December '94 low as a starting point for the current big move. The year before the market went sideways, and the low reached in December was as low as where the market was in mid '93.
Looking at the broader picture (20 years and up) we can locate the point where the Dow lifted off 1000 points (one way ticket) after over a decade of struggling with that barrier and may say that the rise that originated there and then is maturing now. The parabolic nature of this rise is easily distinguished.
Aug 17, 1982 the Dow climbed 38.81 points to 831.24, it's biggest ever one day gain, signaling the start of the '80's bull market. In five years the Dow managed a 220% gain, which gives a pace of 26% yearly (compounded) from bottom to top .
The '87 crash was not a classic crash. On a 20 years graph it looks more like a sharp correction. IMO it wasn't a crash at all, but a hiccup, compared with the big belch of '29. Note that after a very short pause the market continued it's major up trend, and reached a new all time high only 2 years after the big hiccup. It took the Dow three more years (5 years bull again) to complete the second leg of the 15 years bull cycle in Jan '94.
Simple Elliotte wave count on the big 15 years move puts starting point Aug '82 , first action ends Sep '87 (-1-), second action ends Jan '94 (-3-), second reaction takes most of '94 and third action starts Dec '94 (-4-).
Now turn to the 5 years graph and watch the third leg of the bull cycle that started Dec. '95.
To be Continued |
