Is that a contrary sentiment indicator, or does it portend less buying pressure in the immediate future?
I believe it's a bit of both for the moment as the crowd has no one giving them the direction they so often follow. Take a look at AMG's historical page and ask yourself if the figures reported during late 1999 & early 2000 was a contrary indicator.
amgdata.com
This week Investors Intelligence reported an increase in the bulls to 42.4% from the previous 40.8%, but the bears grew as well to 36.4% from 35.7% since those who held themselves in the waffling camp trickled into the bear mode. AAII, about as reliable as a 'click this box' survey, though is now showing the bulls falling to 30.97% from 45.71% and the bears climbing to 46.02% from 25.71% as the neutrals dropped to 23.01% from 28.57%.
Equity P/C has fallen from the high of 1.164 we saw last Friday, but day to day measures are weak to follow. I find it interesting watching the CBOE 10DMA, it's been climbing near to 1.00 after peaking over that mark last October. Double top? I also keep an eye on theOEX P/C and it's 10DMA.
Watch the rising trend of the 10DMA, starting Mar'00 and it has yet to break down, even though, on a one day basis, it hit 1.27 on June 21st with the 10DMA reaching 0.98. I'd like to see it run below 0.80 for a few days. Compare it to the descending trend from early 1999. Notice how it bottomed around 0.44 in March 2000, with the confirmation not showing up until September 2000.
stockcharts.com[w,a]dallnyay[d19990101,20020627][pb10][vc60]
Chart data only goes back to 1997, but you can see the peak of the 10DMA in the Fall of 1998:
stockcharts.com[w,a]dallnyay[d19970401,19990627][pb10][vc60]
Oh well, thought you'd might like to look at a couple of things I've been keeping an eye on.
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