Hi Jay, Matters in ZIM country are deteriorating rapidly.
Many events and issues will impact valuation and attractiveness of country as investment destination.
ZIM$ Currency should crash, unless it has bottomed already. Asset values could further deflate, unless way below book as is.
Most likely, ZIM will become more of a bargain than it already is, soon.
Valuation is high relative to mess, but not as high as CSCO relative to other mess.
So many complicated factors to take it account for this paralyzed investor:0(
I am wondering whether Zimbabwe is a ‘us’ or ‘them’ country on the scale of WAT in the simple world of some. I will remember to check with somebody.
In any case, Mugabe seems to have picked up a bit of every bad habit from all around the world ...
(a) confiscation ala Argentina
(b) land reform – Mao
(c) terror - Taliban
(d) law - Mahatir
(e) vote count - previlaged information
(f) unilateral-ism - cannot recall
(g) discrimination - Idi Amin
(h) stealing - Enron
economist.com
Zimbabwe
From breadbasket to basket case
Jun 27th 2002 | HARARE
From The Economist print edition
Faced with famine, Robert Mugabe orders farmers to stop growing food
JUNE in Zimbabwe is midwinter, but because of the country's subtropical climate, its commercial farmers can grow food all year round. Right now, they should be tending the winter wheat, which is usually ready for harvest in September or October, and preparing their fields for warm-weather crops, such as maize, the national staple. But President Robert Mugabe has commanded them to park their tractors and stop farming. With half the people in Zimbabwe on the brink of starvation, this is, even by Mr Mugabe's standards, an exceptionally bad idea.
From June 25th, some 2,900 white farmers, whose farms have been earmarked to be seized and given to blacks, were legally obliged to cease work. Those who continue to plough, weed and scatter seeds face jail terms of up to two years. Generously, the government said it would allow them to continue living in their homes for another 45 days, but then they must leave. In theory, they are permitted to take their portable possessions away with them, but in practice, police and ruling-party militiamen at roadblocks often prevent them from escaping with anything too valuable. Mr Mugabe's cronies, relatives and assorted mobsters covet their pick-up trucks and threshing machines.
In all, 95% of commercial farmland has been slated for “redistribution”. Some 60% of commercial farmers must halt work immediately. Another 35% have only received preliminary notices of confiscation, and so may carry on farming for a while longer. The remaining handful have so far escaped, either through the incompetence of their persecutors or because they have friends in government.
By the government's own estimates, nearly 7m of the country's 13m people will be without adequate food in a few months
Meanwhile, Zimbabwe is facing its worst food shortage in 60 years, caused by drought and several years of violent harassment of the nation's most productive farmers. By the government's own estimates, nearly 7m of the country's 13m people will be without adequate food in a few months. The World Food Programme (WFP) which, with other donors, is already feeding 600,000 Zimbabweans, says that the food shortage is “virtually universal throughout the country” and predicts that, without a huge increase in imports or food aid, “severe malnutrition and death caused by hunger will occur in the coming months”.
White commercial farmers normally produce a third of Zimbabwe's cereals but, if evicted, may find it a bit difficult to continue feeding the nation. Many vow to carry on farming regardless. “How can the government tell me not to tend my wheat crop when so many people are going hungry?” said one, who preferred not to be named for fear of retribution. “As long as I'm on this farm I am going to feed my pigs and till my fields.” Two farmers went further, filing a lawsuit to have the evictions ruled unconstitutional. But others are winding up their operations and thinking of moving to Zambia, Mozambique, New Zealand or just about anywhere else that will have them. Black farmworkers and their dependants—2m people in all—face destitution.
Mr Mugabe says that his “fast-track land reform” will redistribute wealth from rich whites to poor blacks, from whose families the land was stolen in colonial times. At a recent conference in Rome, he called the programme “a firm launching pad for our fight against poverty and food insecurity”. But since the land is usually handed out to ruling-party loyalists, rather than skilled farmers, the result so far has been the opposite. Cereal production in Zimbabwe has fallen by 67% since 1999-2000, according to the WFP, and looks set to tumble further.
Mr Mugabe does not seem to care. After stealing a presidential election in March, his chief concern has been to punish those who dared to support his opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai. He suspects white farmers of having bankrolled Mr Tsvangirai's campaign, and is determined to ensure that they cannot do so again. He has also targeted critical journalists, ten of whom, including this correspondent, are facing criminal charges for articles they have written. Two prominent lawyers were briefly detained this month and charged with plotting to overthrow the government. As evidence, the police produced a semi-literate letter that the erudite accused allegedly wrote to British diplomats. The British high commissioner (ambassador) to Harare, Brian Donnelly, is accused of “masterminding” a plot to topple Mr Mugabe and is under 24-hour surveillance.
Mr Tsvangirai himself faces treason charges, which could carry the death penalty. And starving peasants who are suspected of having voted for him are denied food aid in areas where the ruling party controls its distribution. |
