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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Cactus Jack who wrote (53307)	6/28/2002 10:14:14 AM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (2) of 65232

From: AllansAlias Friday, Jun 28, 2002 10:10 AM Thanks to stk_pkr on BearForum for this interesting tidbit. Schwab Market update report Scott B. Evans – As of last Friday, the S&P 500 Index (SPX 991) had closed down 10 out of the last 12 weeks. This is a significant event and since 1928 has occurred only seven other times. Each occurrence is highlighted in the table below. Of those seven times, only once did the index fail to post a gain 52 weeks later. On average, the index rose over 31 percent. While such an event has not always coincided with the exact low in the market, its occurrence, in my view, is a signal that there is limited downside risk to the market. S&P 500 Signal Date Price 52 Weeks Later Percent Gain 10/02/1931 9.7 8.08 -16.70% 05/27/1932 4.83 10.13 109.73% 09/20/1946 14.69 15.2 3.47% 04/24/1953 24.2 27.78 14.79% 06/22/1962 52.68 70.25 33.35% 07/03/1970 72.92 99.78 36.83% 03/12/1982 108.6 151.24 39.25% 06/21/2002 989.1 ?? ?? Average Return 31.53% Message 17668582

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