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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (844)6/28/2002 10:41:01 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 89467
 
gold is not responding to lower dollar levels
dollar has fallen from 110 to now 105.9 in 7 trading days
euro is now at 99.4 cents, a quick move toward parity
dollar is now at 118.5 yen, which is more surprising
but gold is still hanging around, now #318.1
gold has made no threat of #330, and little of #325

currency experts have long believed that a falling dollar paves the way for gains in gold
I believe that is a universal currency truth
if not for gold's low summer season, perhaps gold would be marching toward #340 now
its inability to rise here might lead to some to think its run has climaxed in the nearterm

the dollar decline effect on asian exporters to US markets is huge
most of US imports come from asia, both finished products and components to scores of products
the CPI will soon reflect this rising import price effect
it signals price inflation over the horizon
yet gold does not respond

I think we are setting up a ballistic gold upmove here
but at the same time I suspect that gold's low season leaves it both vulnerable to those who cap its price, and lethargic to respond to much of anything

Slider on Drilling II thread believes we are about to see a pullback on the golds before any additional big move later this summer
the driving force might be a counter rally by stocks and dollar
he suggests taking some profits and preparing for buybacks lower

hmmm, jim
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