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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: marginnayan who wrote (176300)6/28/2002 6:58:01 PM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
All you need is Common sense. I remember telling people like a broken record that there was no way BRCM, with its 200 million in revs was worth 60 Billion cap. I explained that if they tripled sales yoy for years it would still be ridiculously valued. This was not any genius. Its the same with the housing market now. Everyone is running to buy a second home. Why? If people are loosing jobs, and profits are declining as the markets and peoples wealth plummets how will RE perform? Now I could be wrong, and the housing market might go up for ever but the probability is that it wont so you invest under the assumptions that have the most probability of actually happening. Last year I set more portfolio up as I fealt the dollar would drop. I bought GOLD, Forighn and domestic bonds and shorted US big caps. I could have been wrong, but the probability was slim. My advise to new investors is to key on something they are reasonably confident that will happen and find the best way to play it LT.
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