exp, here's the time period you are referring to in 2000:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20000302,20001128][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!a3042.7!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
I have run a horizontal line across the May low.
Here's a close look at the May low:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20000415,20000630][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!a3042.7!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
Check out the candles on the previous low. There is a hammer, inverted hammer, a hammer, and another hammer, and a doji star. That all preceeded a drop to new lower lows in the end of May. That may not be a fair comparison, as it was not as oversold at that time, but the candles are something that said the low was not in yet. That's similar to what were' seeing today and yesterday.
Notice also the re-test of the May low came 2-days after the low on lower volume with the necessary reversal stick. Textbook.
Here's the October 2000 Low:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20000915,20001130][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!a3042.7!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
One thing we discussed here a couple of weeks ago was the fact that this low preceeded options expiration, and the ramp that followed was purely bogus just for Max Pain.
I see the re-test of the low wasn't until 6-days later due to expiration. The ramp after that was only a lower double top that failed and moved swiftly down.
One thing of note is the OBV failed to confirm the bounces. The MACD confirmed the moves up off the lows.
On the weekly during that time, the MACD and OBV were still moving down:
siliconinvestor.com
I guess what we need to do is watch the re-test closely and watch our indicators closely. Volume is important on the re-test, as is the type of stick. Confirmation is also needed for the re-test stick.
Anwyay, we can learn from the past, but we can't always predict the future using it. |
