Congrats on the Grubbage
25pt Naz chart is very telling about the last 10 months action.
It is clear that we are just picking up where we left off.
I think that this chart is saying that the September lows
are meaningless. For analytical purposes, we can just cut
out the section from the sept lows to the january highs.
That rally was there because the market wasn't ready for
the Sept lows, so it had to retrace up so that we could
start the decline at the proper pace. One of the things
that JP has been mentioning to me is that there is not only
a price element to the capitulation, there is a time
element. If we had a capitulation tomorrow and the right
amount of time had not progressed, we would have the same
thing happen as last Sept to Jan. Just because the stock
market had a capitulation last Sept, doesn't mean that the
economy suddenly washed out all of its excesses of the
bull market. I am beginning to believe that we will need
to study the overall market fundamentals to differentiate
between bear market rallies and a true bottom. As long as
the market has an excessive valuation, I don't see how we
can call any rally anything but a bear market rally. And,
in fact, considering how extreme valuations got, the bottom
won't be when we have fair value, we will need to be truly
undervalued to mark the bottom. I am just doing some
random musings here, but I am starting to join the camp
of "prolonged bear", instead of looking at a recovery in
the next 6 months. It also convinces me that my hopes of my
stock options every being worth anything are slip sliding
away.
stockcharts.com
2,250.00 | + | | | 2,250.00
2,225.00 | O + | | | 2,225.00
2,200.00 | O + | | | 2,200.00
2,175.00 | O X + | | | 2,175.00
2,150.00 | O X O + | | | 2,150.00
2,125.00 | O X O + | | | 2,125.00
2,100.00 | O X 7 X X + |+ | | 2,100.00
2,075.00 | O X O X O 8 O + |X + | | 2,075.00
2,050.00 | O X O X O X O + C |X O + | | 2,050.00
2,025.00 | O X O X O X O + X O|1 O + | | 2,025.00
2,000.00 | O X O X O X O + X O|X O + | | 2,000.00
1,975.00 | O O X O X O + X O|X O + | | 1,975.00
1,950.00 | O O O + X O|X O + | | 1,950.00
1,925.00 | O X + X O| O X + | | 1,925.00
1,900.00 | O X O + X | O X O + | | 1,900.00
1,875.00 | O X O + X X | O X X O + | | 1,875.00
1,850.00 | O X O X O X | 2 X O X O + | | 1,850.00
1,825.00 | O O X O X | O X O X O X + | | 1,825.00
1,800.00 | O X O | O X O 3 O X O + | | 1,800.00
1,775.00 | 9 X X | O O X 4 X O + | | 1,775.00
1,750.00 | O X X O X | O X O X O X + | | 1,750.00
1,725.00 | O X O X O B | + O X O O X O | | 1,725.00
1,700.00 | O X O X O X | + O O X O | | 1,700.00
1,675.00 | O X O X O X |+ O X X O | | 1,675.00
1,650.00 | O X O O +| O X O X O | | 1,650.00
1,625.00 | O X X + | 5 X O X O | | 1,625.00
1,600.00 | O X O X + | O X O O |High| 1,600.00
1,575.00 | O X O X + | O 6 | | 1,575.00
1,550.00 | O X O + | O X | | 1,550.00
1,525.00 | O X X + | O X O | | 1,525.00
1,500.00 | O X O A + | O X O |Avg | 1,500.00
1,475.00 | O X O X + | O X O X | | 1,475.00
1,450.00 | O X O X + | O O X | | 1,450.00<
1,425.00 | O X O + | O X | | 1,425.00
1,400.00 | O + | O |Low | 1,400.00
1,375.00 | | | | 1,375.00
1,350.00 | | | | 1,350.00
1,325.00 | | | | 1,325.00
1,300.00 | | | | 1,300.00 |
