Does Leap currently have the capacity to provide "all you can eat" data?
In my opinion, the answer is yes. But, only in selected markets. I surmize that when you talk about capacity, you are talking about on the Air Interface. There are a few markets that I believe LWIN would lack the capacity. Such as Phoenix, Denver, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Charlotte to provide a seperate EV-DO carrier. But, in the majority of their markets. I believe they have the capacity for a EV-DO offering. As a matter of fact, in earlier documents provided to the FCC. LWIN provided the FCC with vendor documents regarding EV-DO delivery timetables. What this means in absolute terms is unclear. As far as the existing infrastructure goes. It is all 1X capable, according to Harvey at the shareholders meeting. I believe Verizon now offers "flat rata data" on their Express Network for $99 via 1X. In Qualcomm Economics of Wireless Data White Paper. It shows the cost per Megabyte on 1X of about .059 cents per, vs only .022 per for EV-DO. So my viewpoint is that if a Monolith like Verizon can make a profit on flat rate 1X data at $99 per month. LWIN can make money on flat rate data via EV-DO at $35 per month.
Is porting essentially the ability to transfer phone numbers back and forth? Say if I terminate my wireline service but wish to retain my wireline phone number for my new Leap account.
Yes, and not just for residences, but business also, whose phone number is their life blood. Which of course the RBOC's understand and gouge their business users.
Currently, Wireline providers already support LNP due to FCC rules. I did receive a reply from LWIN IR yesterday. It basically stated that their is no regulatory problems with Cricket being able to request a "port in" of a wireline subscribers phone number. Quoted from the reply from IR.... "However, there are technical obstacles to wireline to wireless porting such as interface and testing, etc. and agreements have to be reached as to the level of charges. The implementation of wireline number porting to our network ultimately depends on consumer demand and you can expect us to proceed based on the cost/benefit of providing such a service."
My viewpoint is that porting a subscribers wireline phone number to Cricket is almost like a Contract. Especially, if they are not required to "port out" to another wireless carrier due to current regulations.
"What are the worst case scenarios?"
Covenant Violations, Bankruptcy Filings, All of Crickets subscribers turn off their service. Asteroids hit all of Crickets CO facilities. End of the World (I think that pretty much covers it).
As far as Covenant Violations go. Most of the debt is held by the Vendors.. ERICY/NT/LU... I am sure none of those companies stock would react nicely to a Bankruptcy Filing.
That being said.. There is a very nice upside potential if they meet their operating guidelines and EBITDA metrics.
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