I did not sleep well ... because in afterthought my equation just did not jive. I was honestly afraid somebody is taking me to the toolshed, while Im sleeping. So to avoid any serious damage, here's a quote from somebody close to the author of the original equation:
"In the early 1980s, when I was one of Minsky's students, he introduced us to the Kalecki equation, which he, and we, later found to be similar to Jerome Levy's profits equation. In the Kalecki version,
aggregate profits = private sector investment + government deficit
+ trade surplus (- trade deficit) + consumption out of profits (capitalists' consumption) -
saving out of wages (workers' saving)
In his exposition, Minsky quickly jumped to what is called the classical case, in which capitalists do not consume and workers do not save, so that aggregate profits would be equal to investment plus the government deficit minus the trade deficit."
from levy.org
Policy Note 2000/5: Can The Expansion Be Sustained? A Minskian View
I see Minsky & Co, iow the Levis (the other Levis), as Austrians somehow more close to Ayn Rand than to Schumpeter.
In any case your/our reshuffle
saving = GDP - government deficit - current account
is fine, as long as we see the elements as percents, for instance GDP as GDP growth.
>> believe you are close to the mark, and would be closer still by picking on the still most highly regarded stocks, and would be spot on if distilled down to the essence, the USD.<<
Well, LOL, I just sold JPM and IBM puts - I really cant tell you why, but let's say, to realize profits, a good enough excuse -. Wanted to go less respectable ("where stocks with PEs above 60 when you need it?")
And re Dollar, you put your thumb on it. Just one put (or euro call) would do it. It actually does it - its a ten-bagger and Im holding on to it of course, All the rest that I hold or held, is small change compared to it.
A funny thing happened to me - I followed dow a couple of SI URLs and then landed back in BBR and kept reading. First reaction "Tradermike is back, that's nice", then "oh, some new guys as well" and "YES, I've been saying that all along, Japan is in real dodo with the banking problem" ... etc, until I realized I was browsing through year 2000. And it was all so darn familiar and fresh...
Mean to say, is that a long term burn-in, exposure damage? Or is it really happening?
My bet: 3:1 for Brasil - in case Elmat is lurking. Time zero minus 6:00
RegZ
dj |
