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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (12419)	6/30/2002 2:49:17 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) of 57684

Eugene I saw you on Zeev's thread talking about manu. The problem with shorting manu at these levels is that although their fundamentals aren't great due to the software slump, they are gaining mkt share against their competitors, which were much larger once, and in some cases (i2) the mgmt has left so there isn't any indication that the trend will reverse. Manu has some debt and not much cash so it artificially holds the stock down until they announce a great qtr or a big contract and then the stock pops. This piece has Owens talking about how i2 was 5x manu 2 yrs ago and now only 1.5x manu's size, manu has doubled in the timeframe and i2 has collapsed. biz.yahoo.com Its hilarious reading the yahoo msg board on manu, with all the whining bears about "why this POS went up" on friday after those results. Manu going down further is not a certainty at all, it is held 70% by institutions who are NOT selling at these levels and the remaining float is heavily shorted. The chances of manu getting lower than 1x P/S is really small, since they are the only guys actually growing in this climate. My guess is, a brief visit to the 4s is as low as she goes and thats in the right mkt conditions. Blindly shorting everything in site has worked in the last year, and imo the bears are doing what the bulls did once, considering themselves geniouses and this is a case of that. I predict some shorter gets crushed on manu before the end of this year... the scenario will be something like, manu rallies to 7-8 for no reason, after hanging around 4-5. Bears take a HUGE short position. Manu announces a large deal or ups guidance (likely at some point) and the stock jumps to 20. L

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