Jay:
>>No Mike, I will be going long gold tonight, by and by, as in selling NEM puts, because I have faith that gravity and free market will win against magic and intervention. The win may take as long as 12 years, ala Japan, but then again, may not, given the balance sheet of world ex-Japan.<<
You're making the mistake of acting because you are "right." Of course, being the experienced investor that I know you to be, your NEM puts will be a small percentage of your total portfolio, so no real harm done. Which is just as well, because all the money in gold has already been made this cycle, by those who were smart enough to buy DROOY a year and a half ago (like DAK - providing of course he doesn't hold it for another 6 months).
As to your implications of central bank conspiracy to hold down the price of gold, I would say that the links that you cite show sales of very small amounts of gold. In any case, doesn't the theory go that the total capitalization of the gold market is small enough that a relatively small increase in buying interest by the vast global pool of hot money will send gold to the moon? Doesn't seem to be happening.
The more likely explanation for the POG's slide over the week-end is that the hedge funds have bailed, selling their DROOY at $4.26 to the Johnny-come-lately little guys and that investor sentiment is inexorably turning again from fear to greed.
The pressure is building for an EXPLOSIVE upward move in US equities. Miss it and you'll miss the entire year's gains and more. |
