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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 165.80+3.6%1:36 PM EST
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To: Outer-limits who wrote (9153)7/1/2002 1:33:56 PM
From: chomolungma  Read Replies (1) of 9256
 
I think 950-999 on the DAQ should do it. Until then it will be a slow, vicious, grind lower!!!!

I think there's a tendency to become overly pessimistic in the late stages of a bear market. At least that's my observation from the bear markets that I have lived through. I believe another 30% lower on the NAZ is much too pessimistic.

In fact, my opinion is that we are nearing a bottom now and many stocks will pay handsomely to those with the courage to buy them while fearful investors run to supposedly safer havens.

My optimism is based on:

1) We are now entering the 3rd quarter of economic recovery.

2) This recovery is not just a U.S. phenomenon, but growth throughout the world is beginning.

3) The dollar has come off its unsustainable highs and the damage it has done to U.S. manufacturers is being reversed.

4) This recovery and a lower dollar will boost earnings of American businesses significantly. Especially helped will be technology producers who make much needed capital goods that the rest of the world will demand more of in the coming cycle than in any other.

5) The excesses of managements and the accounting abuses that hurt shareholders during the last upswing have been exposed and it will be much harder to take from the ordinary shareholder in the future.

6) Worldwide growth in the coming period should be sustainable as interest rates are low throughout most of the world and low inflation rates should allow stimulus in many countries.

7) Most investors are fixated on the past and don't see the bright economic future on the horizon.
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