chris714,
Some visiting friends left a day early to visit some relatives, so with the morning off, I fell victim to temptation. Liked the way gold held up this morning, so I started buying back in.
Not worried about Crameritis yet on the contrarian front, I was only worried how POG and HUI would hold supports 310-313 and lower 120's HUI. Felt there was enough of a pullback from my previous sale points to warrant a return to sector.
The recent months of POG/HUI rally was a mostly gold bug thing, IMHO, the general public has only started nibbling, and few have done even that.
They are too TIMID to be contrarians. Just to test the waters, I bragged gold up a bit (lt, not st) to two different generations of traders/investors at work. Young daytraders and older blue chip investors. Both demonstrated substantial skepticism and most showed little interest. The young ones have known nothing but a Gold Bear over most of the their lives, or they got burned trading it in 97 before they converted to dot bombs and made a killing (and for the most part, then got killed).
The older ones bought in near the top of the 79-80 gold bull, got creamed later and missed the general market bottom in 82 by a bit. Though these Blue Chipers have done well since then, like many others they hold a grudge against gold.
As a whole, these two groups still believe in Almighty Greenspan and the Bull Dollar, but their faith IS just beginning to definitely waiver. But one young and still active trader swore the NAZ had bottomed last week and now rise again. Only further failure will engender a substantial lack of faith that grows and spreads like a plague to the 401K holders, then the general market may form a bottom. What it does after that I don't know, but I will watch with interest (maybe about 4Q?).
My contrarian nerves were soothed by those conversations plus golds holding support levels this morning. Idle hands being the daytraders devils playground, it was enough for me to start back in, with room to maneuver if I'm early.
Best of luck to all, having made my scouting raids on the PM stocks, I'm back to the holiday vistors mode later today and most of the rest of this week,
Roebear |
