improved savings are actually bad news for the economy, because it means the consumer's back is broken. he is no longer confident in the value of his options package at some co that is only profitable on a pro forma basis, while people around him get canned left and right. so instead of spending his money, he saves it. this is money that does not grow the economy. if you doubt this, look at the hypersaving economy of Japan. it is inevitable that the savings rate will rise here and it is very bad news.
in the US, the rest of the world does our saving for us. this kicks ass, because we can thereby spend and invest in excess of our savings. of course, this only works in one country in the world, and only until the rest of the world stops thinking we're great (which is just about now).
eventually, foreigners will desert us or demand high rates of return just like the rest of the world, so we will have to rely on our own savings. this will mean higher interest rates and slower growth. what a bummer!
much better (from a selfish perspective) is to have everybody in the US spend their money to keep our economy going, and to have foreigners continue to prop up the dollar by buying our assets, even while i secretly save money and convert it to real assets ahead of the invevitable crash.
but life is usually not so easy, so everyone will panic and save (thus killing the consumer wheel of our economy), even as foreigners dump our stocks and bonds, thus killing the dollar. what a mess it will be!
as for mfg, your article said manufacturers axed more workers. that is not good. the lift thus far in mfg has been an inventory correction.
in any case, however, my bearishness is more tied to the extreme valuation of our stock market and the poor geopolitical and dollar outlook than whatever blip happens in the US economy at large. |
