Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 170.90

-1.3%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (121188)	7/2/2002 1:34:35 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) of 152472

I can understand Hambrecht's concerns about the replacement market and net additions going forward....but their estimate about total sales of 1x handsets drives me crazy. In the report, they state that 1x handset sell-through is around 11-12 million vs chipset sales of 30 million (at the end of June). I wish they did their damn homework. 1x subscribers totaled 10 million in Korea and Japan at the end of May. 3gtoday.com Japan and Korea are likely to add around 1.4 million new 1x subscribers during the month of June. These two countries alone account for all of Hambrecht's estimate. PCS stated that they had sold 1 million 1x handsets at the end of the first quarter. My guess is that they will sell another 1-2 million during this quarter (from the PCS website it looks like most of their handsets have a MSM5105/5100). Verizon and Leap are also both selling 1x handsets....and though I havent seen an estimate for sales, anecdotally, the Kyocera 1x handsets have been selling well with both operators. Figure another 1-1.5 million total for the two carriers. All told....this would give us a sell-through of about 14.5-16 million units. This is quite a big gap from Hambrecht's estimate. Who konws....maybe this is still too much 1x inventory. However, using an initial number that is so obviously wrong completely discredits the entire analysis. Slacker

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