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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: stockman_scott who wrote (1184)7/2/2002 2:14:06 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (4) of 89467
 
US$ fundys are miserable, but recent decline has been huge
this is a currency, not a stock
since June 20th a move from 111 to 105, now 106.5
this is utterly huge

the stronger Euro can and will hurt the European economy
their US technology imports will cost less, which is good
but they will have poor multinational currency translations
and their exports are now in trouble with pricing

I see definite sideways dollar action upcoming
with a decent chance of a surprise attack favoring the dollar
currency traders only want to make money
if the CB's and their PPT tools get in the way consistently
then sometime the currency guys will join the CB's
but only for a brief time
it will be days or a couple weeks
until the dollar hits up against the 20MA, or 50MA

I have the US$ 20MA at 109.4 now
the buck is now at 106.7 now
that is almost 300 pts of upside before colliding on 20MA

over the years I have monitored my own emotions and reactions
I have come up with an interesting turning point indicator
when people get angry with the market
when the market doesnt do what it SHOULD be doing
when the logical links dont seem to work, disconnects
THIS MARKS A TURN

it the entire currency world now calling for continued dollar declines?
sounds like a voice in unison
that dont work
that is why we saw a big move down of 5% in two weeks
/ jim
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