Seasonality is a major factor in resource juniors, it is no accident this thread is named for a season ... not many daytraders in this sector, the more consistently successful could maybe be termed yeartraders ... so many of these puppies are illiquid in the extreme, compared to some mainstream thing that flows like water through a busted dam .... one of which i hold a few shares has had exactly 27 trades in the last 90 days, looks like under 100k total shares .... so a large measure of commitment is made on entry, risk/reward must be carefully balanced, with both price paid and one's attention span considered
There are four months to the speculative year, beyond the in-between times -
1. Taxloss ... roughly the twenty or so trading days leading up to the winter solstice ... bargoon time, people are dumping their dogs to write off the loss ... historically the absolutely best time to enter, even in years other than this one where the PoG was and is helping
2. Winter ... starts right around the solstice for some shares, maybe fifteen or twenty trading days later for others ... partly recovery from dumping during Taxloss, often augmented by plans being made for spring/summer programmes and promotion in aid of financing activities .... hard to say exactly where this month ends for any particular share in any particular year, but generally not too many days distant from the spring equinox .... there's an old saying, 'sell in May and stay away', however even the first of May can sometimes be a tich late, or in other cases premature, it depends ... generally by ten trading days after the s.e. i have generated at least some cash, and usually more by the summer solstice ... and not to entirely stay away, but partly to take advantage of bargoons in the next month, Summer
3. Summer .... in this month it gets nice outside, people get involved in Real Life, lose interest in the market .... best part is, some guy is at the beach relaxing, sipping margaritas, runs into a nice lady who turns out to be interested in world travel, guy says let's go to Paree then, calls his broker, says sell that xxx.v, broker says at what price, guy says don't care just sell the p.o.s. i want the money today ... well everybody else is at the beach too, so the bids are weakish, people having largely forgotten to put some in, so those who do, a group in which i try to include myself, find themselves filled at quite reasonable prices, quite often .... this season peaks right about half-way between summer solstice and fall equinox, 'first half of August' in that other way of counting months .... fairly often shares picked up there will go significantly green in the month immediately following, Septemberrally
4. Septemberrally ... doesn't always come every year, and even when it does it doesn't come for all puppies ... when it doesn't, you may have just found out the hard way that your outstanding purchase of Summer is a dog, and not such a bargoon after all .... over a diversified and carefully selected package however, green is usually seen, barring big PoG tankolas and the like ... this month is short, ends maybe two to five trading days before the fall equinox ... ? - depends .... in this month it can be a good idea to generate a little cash, to prepare oneself for the first month of the coming year, Taxloss
This is all very general averaged-out stuff, of course, any share or any year can vary widely, but if you study lots of charts you'll see seasonal patterns of roughly this nature .... this year is quite special, with last Taxloss being nicely cheap after five years of a gold bear, and then gold making bullish signs from Winter on, so on many charts the pattern to now is exaggerated ... still, as human beans we are subject to all the ambience that has always driven the species, and must consider it carefully .... i think what i'm trying to say to you is, in Summer i find it rarely necessary or desirable to take any shares from the offer, usually figure out a cheap price i'd like to pay, knock a little off that even, stick the bid in GTC, and go to the beach/garden/Biergarten .... speaking of which - cháu ;-) |
