I think you have some manipulation, some selling the winners, and a whole lot of apathy with regards to terrorism -- this is why gold has languished in the past week. But the general markets have not seen any panic selling yet. There have been no 90% volume/price down days except one, I believe, in April of 2001 during this entire 2 1/2 year period. I think this "capitulation" will not occur over a one day period like the talking heads lead everyone to believe. It has not happened like that in all of stock market history. I like Desmond's work on this. We must have several, IMO, 90% down days spread over perhaps 1-2 months, followed by at least two 90% up days to confirm a real turning in the markets. THIS HAS NOT EVEN COME CLOSE YET. Couple this with the completely unknown amount of fraud, and you have a once in a lifetime opportunity for complete disruption! No one can even guess right now as to what the major stock's PE ratios are -- and these are the very stocks keeping the averages where they are. These are the very stocks, I believe, which will turn people to sheer panic -- a panic which they will perceive lasting for years perhaps. I believe this scenario fits perfectly with a terrorism or natural disaster episode(s). I can feel it in my bones. Apathy after playtime always results in a major spanking. I'll repeat that. Apathy after playtime always results in a major spanking. I BOUGHT MORE GOLD STOCKS TODAY. When the proverbial you know what hits the fan, all hell (excuse the word, but it literally applies here) will break loose. Gold stocks will open 25% higher and climb from there. I don't think I would have the guts to rationally jump back in if I were out. Maybe take this old fool as a contrary indicator, but I have a real uneasiness. Keep you eye on the news daily.
I remain,
SOROS |
