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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

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To: SOROS who wrote (1230)7/2/2002 11:05:55 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) of 89467
 
two market features prevent capitulation: futures, curbs

the futures market softens all the blows in major overnight moves
e.g. on WCOM day, the Dow opened -150pts, and after a brief drop, it rose all day, then rose the next two days

if big news hits on earnings afterhrs, futures enjoys the benefit or takes the hit

then you have curbs
they prevent big losses like Oct98
after Dow is down 250 pts, things tighten up
in order to allow new money to come in,
and to prevent panic selling
just the kind of selling that represents capitulation

George, check some of the Slider and Pembleton posts on Drilling II
you may get your payday of 25% upside overnight
right now I believe Iraq will not be attacked
talk of such is pure diversionary tactic
it enables enormous Pentagon financing without argument

I will be back
I am a bigtime gold believer
but the disconnects are too stark to ignore right now
I will ease in at lower prices
I expect a gold stock capitulation that will be very easy to happen
we have a nice clue now
silver will fall next, after gold
silvers could be a great short here, and I am considering

agreed, nowhere near the Dow bottom
target is 5000-6000
my best guess is by Feb 2003

I keep an eye on the news all the time
I will be here almost daily
I may be shorting things
watch the charts, Pops
XAU and HUI look utterly terrible now
/ jim
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