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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 689.10

0.0%

Jan 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83268)	7/3/2002 10:20:59 AM
From: Patrice Gigahurtz	Read Replies (1) of 99985

My gut feeling is that the lack so far of a warning(s) from CSCO, SUNW, JNPR and EMC is a positive. If they all report lower end of est I'd be happy with that and I would think then the Naz would settle down and re-group some of its panic selling of late. I'd be hard pressed to see the Naz at 1562 unless the above noted techs report some improvement in their outlook(s). Until they all report the potential buyers are sitting on their hands and that just leaves the panic'd sellers left to control the direction of stocks. The next 3 weeks are most critical. I'm wondering if the Fed is doing anything in the background to settle down some of the turmoil thats resulted from the WCOM and other(s) recent accounting issues ? One thing is for sure the USA can't bail out every troubled company. I myself don't buy the QQQs when I buy the Naz, I prefer a fund that tracks the Naz. As well I prefer a fund that tracks the S+P. Of my 75% invested 50% of that is in the Naz and %25 is in the S+P. As following the 9/11 panic lows, the Naz gave me more profits in a short time than the S+P did and back then I also used averaged buys once the slid began. The current slid surprised me in that it was a trickle kind of slide over a longer period versus the 9/11 panic slid was 3 digits DOW tanks day after day for maybe 5 days. The current Naz slid is so far -22% tank from the 1741 mark on 5/7/2002. So in about two months time the Naz has tanked -22% and we haven't yet seen 2nd qtr earnings results ! Its all panic selling in my view and "weak hands". The quicker WCOMs sells off some of their assets the better as well if some of the weak cell phone makers sell off some of their assets. This is just my 2cents and of course I wish I could look into the future but if we get bad conference calls in the following weeks look out below ! Thanks

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