A little perspective for everyone. I have been a long time lurker on this thread and enjoyed much of the banter that goes back and forth, but as I read some of the pontifications from various erudite sounding contributors, I thought it was time for me to add a little perspective.
Perspective 1. In 1994 I was invited to a semi-private meeting with Bill Gates to discuss technology issues in general, but banking technology specifically. With me were seven or eight other banking software executives and business owners. It was a very interesting session covering a lot of topics but the most interesting to me was something that was NOT discussed. The topic of the Internet was not raised by anybody including Mr. Gates. You have to understand that the Internet has had a massive impact on banking in a multitude of ways and yet, at a meeting of people who should have been ‘in the know’ about the future including the Chairman of the largest software company in the world, it did not even feature as a topic. And yet, less than one year later, Mr. Gates wrote his famous email announcing to every Microsoft employee that the Internet was now his company’s number one focus.
Perspective 2. In late 1992 or early 1993 I was at a banker’s conference where the featured speaker was Mr. Greenspan. Now, I know that many on this board like to disparage him, but he is after all, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. During his speech he stated (I am paraphrasing) that never in his entire career had he ever seen bank executives, business owners and others as despondent about the future as at that time. And yet a mere 36 months later, he made his statement about irrational exuberances.
Perspective 3. I wonder how many people on this thread can remember the banking crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Do you realize that EVERY major bank in Texas collapsed or was forced into an FDIC acquisition. Where I live in Southern California, 19 of the 26 banks in my county disappeared. I have it on pretty good authority that in the late 1980s’ Bank of America was so under capitalized, that every night the fed would transfer deposits into BoA just so they could meet their minimum capital requirements. As an insider, I can tell you that banks today are in a completely different situation than they were ten years ago.
Yes, we went through a ridiculous tech bubble. Yes, we might be in the middle of a real estate bubble. Yes to all those and many other observations. My simple point is that the smartest most erudite prognosticator has absolutely no idea what is going to happen next, not in technology, not in the economy and certainly not in the war on terrorism. Just as Bill Gates, the man at the very center of the software universe failed to anticipate the impact of the Internet until it was almost upon him, and just as in a few short years Mr. Greenspan’s views went from the depths of despondency to irrational exuberance, and just as our banking system almost collapsed a decade ago, no one can anticipate who will fail and who will succeed, or what will happen next week, never mind the next 25 years. This is still the land of the free and home of the brave. The meek will wring their hands and cry that the sky is falling, but the strong will venture forward and create wonderful and exciting new opportunities. |
