Art B re: ["I tend towards cyclicals that have much longer periods, measured typically in years, which is why I have a hard time with gold."]
...Art; I'm not trying to be overly critical of you... I welcome and enjoy you sharing your thinking here.
But, I would criticze strongly the statement you made here about "cyclicals" measured in years etc...
In a nutshell.... I think times have changed.
I think we will have shorter, more compressed and more volatile cycles - especially as far as shareprices (versus the underlying commodity prices) are concerned.
Last year you were commenting about what you saw as near "new paradigm" positive fundamentals for a longterm huge upcycle in energy... but, yet a plethora of energy companies have gone bankrupt, or been decimated and the OSX has been dead money for 2 years now.... TWO YEARS.
When the original SI SD thread blew up... new pro-energy threads were formed... such as Big Dog's Boom Boom Room and link over there to that thread and note; that the thread portfolio is DOWN - 30% since its inception.
I'm not trying to insult Big Dog , or anyone else...but, many of these threadsters are examples of falling in love with a sector, or group... being emotional and not logical in investing and above all - failing to realize that first and foremost - the Oilpatch is, was and will always be - a CYCLICAL sector... and you can NEVER trade them like growth stocks...ie: longterm buy & holds.
...hell; I'm not so sure that longterm buying and holding will work again in the near future, in anything other than undiscovered small, or micro cap growth stocks - given the SECTOR ROTATION game that Institutions have adopted and the real possibility that due to technology and the emergence of the global market; that most, if not nearly all cycles, may become shorter and more volatile in the future... whether it's in tech, or oil. |
