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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Warpfactor who wrote (14859)	7/3/2002 10:34:28 PM
From: pvz	of 23153

Since we're talking about it, here is my current calculation. I'll follow up with some commentary in another post. S&P Valuation ("Fed Model") using latest operating earnings estimates: What it is: Earnings Yield (eps/$spx) compared to $tnx.x 1. $spx.x valuation S&P Operating Earnings 56.13 Earnings yield 5.88% Fair value 1,183 Over (under) (19.37%) 2. Next Quarter What the numbers will show NEXT QUARTER using TODAY'S spx and tnx: S&P Operating Earnings 58.40 Earnings yield 6.12% Fair value 1,231 Over (under) (22.50%) 3. Assumptions S&P Operating Earnings estimates 2002 2003 Q4 14.36 16.62 Q3 13.48 15.75 Q2 12.34 14.74 Q1 10.75 13.55 $spx.x 953.99 10 year yield (tnx) 4.744% ** Fwd estimate = Q3+Q4+Q1(03)+Q2(03) Next quarter = Q4+Q1(03)+Q2(03)+Q3(03) Source for operating earnings: spglobal.com

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