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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: SirRealist who wrote (91103)7/4/2002 3:07:39 AM
From: augieboo  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
SR, the doji on XAU and GFI, (the plural of doji is doji), both look to be signaling impending reversals toward the upper (blue) lines of the charts' respective Pennant formations. Note that I say "IMPENDING" reversals. Despite what many seem to think, a doji is not a "reversal" candle, it's more of an indication that a violent fight is going on between the bulls and the bears as to whether the current trend will continue.

Take a look at the yellow squares on the XAU chart, and you'll see that a reversal from a downtrend is often associated with multiple doji-like candles, i.e., candles with small "real bodies." The position of the doji vis-a-vis the previous day's red candle forms a bullish Harami pattern, which lends a bit more support to the idea that the turn may be coming soon. (But note that the XAU could go down nearly to the green line and still remain in a Pennant formation.)

stockcharts.com[g,a]declynay[dd][p][J4983859,Y]&listNum=1

The situation on the GFI chart is much the same, except that the doji is located a bit lower in relation to the previous white candle, which makes if a bit closer to being a bullish Harami Star. Don't sweat the names, but do note that the GFI chart has a stronger, (i.e., three point), lower trend line on its pennant, so I think a turn by the yellow line is likely.

stockcharts.com[g,a]declyiay[dc][p][vc60][J4195701,Y]&listNum=1

For a recent example of a chart where a doji has not indicated in immediate reversal of trend, see RGLD, which has a similar Pennant formation going, and which just posted back-to-back doji. stockcharts.com[g,a]declyiay[dc][p][vc60][J4195712,Y]&listNum=1

Finally, note that the HUI has a similar pattern, stockcharts.com[g,a]declyiay[dc][p][vc60][J4599231,Y]&listNum=1 , as do several others, including:

stockcharts.com[g,a]declyiay[dc][p][vc60][J4982822,Y]&listNum=1

stockcharts.com[g,a]declyiay[dc][p][vc60][J4479303,Y]&listNum=1

(:

augie
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