Since about mid June (just before the start of the third phase in the Nassacre) my target low was reduced to around 1320 (#reply-17601194) or so (I had 1326 as the new nominal low, mentioned few times on the thread since around June 12th), while at the beginning of the Nassacre, on May 15th I had that low pegged a solid 100 naz points higher. Last week, I suggested that 1375 could hold, but I did not have it as a "line in the sand" or as a stop, so last week's vacillation was indeed an error. Over the weekend ajtj and I discussed the retrenchment from the Friday run, and both agreed that 1400 could be a good place for that retrenchment to stop, we had another day and something to sweat through and we did get within 10 Naz points of the 1326 target (where I went to the fully loaded status). I rarely use global stops, namely get out of everything, when I have a dangerous situation, I simply go to around 70%-80% cash and let stops in individual stocks raise that even higher (I think that my max cash position in the last three years has not exceeded 90%) Thus the close under 1380, while putting me "on guard" was not a call for getting out.
What is more important is what next, I think that the bounce we get, if we get one, will not be very powerful, and personally, I will reduce exposure, mostly because I got "over exposed" (I am under 10% cash going into the holiday) with some OB's hitting (like AMGN, BPRX and NOVN) and some "forced" doubling (like CCRD, OAKT, SSTI and USPI) and at this point, I think I should be in the 20%-30% cash. |
