SEAbridge may soon act like a failing option call play
it is extremely highly leveraged to gold metal prices
which are dicking around aimlessly here in #310-315 range
I expect sub #310 to come if no July4th attacks occur
share prices have support at C$2.40
but we have a failed doubletop, just like with HUI index
it closed at C$2.58 on Wedday
close now to that support level seen in mid-June
usually failed doubletops dont support where they did last
they seek out a lower level of support
with any even minor retreat in gold price, C$2.40 wont hold
with any continued USdollar consolidation here, gold will at best level off
that will not help gold miner stocks
leveling behavior will chip away nuggets in gold shares
the XAU and HUI indexes are showing breakdown
I expect C$2.40 to break down also
today, Canadians are buying at the ask, but teeny volumes
next support level is much lower, at C$1.60-1.80
this is the most likely support I see coming in the next 2-4 weeks
if gold retreats to touch #300, then C$1.60 is certain in my view
if gold retreats even very temporarily with 2-3 straight closes under #300, I see gold miner capitulation coming
with that will come support at C$1.00
gold miners are suffering from broken psychology
sure, the dollar has careened down
but a gradual US$ decline would benefit gold more
now we have a strong potential for CBanker action succeeding
that is precisely the sideways consolidating action that disrupts gold momentum
I dont delve into stochastics or relative strenk
only simple broken double top, now seeking support
confirmation is coming from the indexes
actually, I think the indexes are painting a scarey picture
one where shorting golds can make 20-25% quickly
I find silver stocks even more extremely vulnerable
we have a strange world now with two indexes
XAU is showing a concluding Head & Shoulder bear pattern
the neckline was a flat line at 95
the target is mid-60's
it is 71.5 now
the newer HUI is showing a failed doubletop with broken uptrend support
the next levels of support are 110, 100, 90
it is 123 now
Rosey ODonnell is on "League of Their Own" now with Geena Davis
the baseball movie with women during WW2
I thought of you, so this is pure physick
seriously, the golds are now gonna struggle to find support
the mounting fundamental evidence of deflation only serves to undermine the golds, RIGHT NOW
but all manner of undercurrent declining dollar inflationary effects are working together with powerful monetary expansion inflationary forces to combine in a way not seen in 30 years
such forces cannot remain subdued
which is great great for gold and miners
I think price inflation will win big
but the evidence must show up to launch gold and gold miners
China and Asia will likely enter into a depression next year
this is more supply line deflationary winds
$2.40
$1.60 (my best guess and expectoration)
$1.00
I hope this makes sense to you
/ jim
p.s. do you still love me? |
