Roger, the successful @Home IPO, today's news that Roadrunner is now at 10,000 subscribers, and projections by cable modem makers of nearly 200,000 cable modems this year and over 1,000,000 next year, are all starting to gang-up on AOL.
I note that local ISPs are starting to realize that they have to live with cable modems. An ad in today's San Diego Uniion-Tribune:
"Q. Does your cable modem provider offer you Domain name Services, such as email and web hosting for your company name?
A. ConnectNet has solution that enhance all cable modem services."
(In fact, there may be some long investment opportunities with those ISPs that recognize early-on that they need to turn toward enhancing cable services, rather than fighting the inevitable. In fact, I use the ISP that placed this ad specifically for those reasons - though I have @Home, I route my e-mail through Connectnet to be able to filter on a shell account, and also maintain two web sites with them.)
Cable is going to start eating-away at AOL's membership. Though some will stay, for a time, for content (particularly those involved in chat and folder "communities") it's just going to grind away at the numbers. Slowly at first, but inevitably. The market has to recognize this at some point, and discount their future viability. |
