Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (51877)	7/5/2002 1:34:24 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (2) of 54805

In the same portfolio, I don't see anything cheap enough to buy. But then I am valuationist... Which raises another related question ... what can one expect of valuation metrics in times like these? In a period of steady growth, both short and long term estimates are likely to be at least moderately reliable because one expects next year to be like this year which was like last year. But, in periods of dramatic shift, certainly all of the short term valuationist metrics become meaningless and the long term ones become difficult to estimate with confidence. E.g., suppose one were looking at SEBL and that one had a 5 year horizon as ones preferred period of evaluation. The difference between substantial recovery setting in by the end of 2002 versus 2003 or 2004 will make a very big difference on those five year figures.

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