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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (51880)	7/5/2002 2:34:24 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Thomas, you are absolutely right. How does one estimate the growth rate of a company the profits and sales of which are level or decreasing? We simply can't do it with any accuracy. Impossible! And when a business has been proved by events to be cyclic, the estimation of the future growth rate gets even more difficult. I'm inclined, following Buffett, to wait for the sure thing, the "fat pitch" that's easy to hit a home run with. BUT, looking over the last 40+ years, I've only come across a sure thing four times. I think buying SEBL at 10 to 12 times present earnings would be a sure thing. It would have to be priced at a single digit for that. Of course people may make lots of money buying SEBL or any of our other favorites at higher than "sure thing" prices. Unless you are content to buy only once in eight years, we have to get involved with "almost sure' (??) things. This thread explores the potentials of the gorillas. I think the case for the gorilla characteristics of the set {INTC,CSCO,SEBL,MSFT} has been well made here.

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