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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (91769)7/5/2002 6:49:59 PM
From: Joe Smith  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Zeev-
Many charts etc. that I look at resemble September 11 more than the end of February. I think that it is possible that we got or are getting a decent bottom here even without your GNT's. Although I am not sure how to explain their absence.

Some evidence:

We over shot your initial target of 1420's by a lot.
We came near your 1326 target. The only difference here was we got there by way of a few extra days of "relentless" grinding instead of a few GNT's

So then, why the extra grinding and the absence of GNT's. I submit that the shorts are in control of this market to a large extent and we have to look at their profit taking as a cushion that prevents the GNT's as they cover at the bottoms. Blame it on some sopisticated short-sellers.

So then, what does that mean for the markets? What it means is that we have some shrewd and powerful shorts with a mountain of cash. Until they start committing that cash long or start to get it eaten away out from under them, they will still be in control.

It is a mirror image of early 2000 where the longs had the mountain of cash and controlled the markets with it. We have to look at how they lost control to see how it is that the shorts might lose control and create a melt-up similar to the two-year melt-down we have had.

I think that we need to see real earnings to see that just as we needed to see real declines in earnings to stop the bull.

Any thoughts?
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