RtS, Nice assessment of your thoughts on where we are and where we may be going. Thanks.
I think there are positive forces at work in the market like lower interest rates that will kick in at some point, but I don't claim to know when they will become paramount. The day is coming, however, when capital spending will improve(actually, semi-equip capital spending has been increasing for some time). Right now, not many people are willing to look at the positives that are happening in the market. For one thing, semi-equip capital expenditures have been improving every month.
The BtB ratio has been increasing since Apr 2001, 13 months ago, when it stood at 0.44. It has been over 1.0 for the past 3 months, closing at 1.26 for May, a very good number. June should also be a good report which is due on 19 July. One of these days, notice will be taken of the good news instead of all the bad news.
I think we are going to have some more "ups and downs", but we may have seen the low for this year. A lot will depend on how things unfold this summer.
Like you, I would like to have seen a better "capitulation". We didn't get the same type of action in the last week like 8 Oct 1998, but maybe it was not meant to be. A lot of things are "different" this time and it may affect the type of bottom that occurred.
Like you, I think we are going to have a "short" rally here and then some pullback, but the amount of pullback may not be to the levels of earlier this week.
The SOX just set an intraday low this week that goes back to January 1999. The NASDAQ broke all intraday lows back to early 1997. That should count for something.
Anyway, I'm watching and waiting for the upcoming action. Based on that action, adjustments can be made in our forward looking assessments.
JMO,
Don |
